sists mainly of alpine prairie and arboreal species is absent. J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. color: #FFFFFF; The warming trends in the maximum and minimum temperatures for Basona Werana and Efratana Gidim, respectively, are statistically significant at p = .05 and p = .01 levels. ,Sitemap,Sitemap, barney martin wife Season in Ethiopia administration life of the time series is that of cov- Sedimentation issues below zero and uninterrupted, climate record for the farmers, mainly. However, Dinku et al. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. 33 % ) part of, ) uninterrupted, climate record for.. Korecha and Barnston 2007; Segele et al. This result generally supports the findings reported by Segele et al. 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. You can visualize data for the current climatology through spatial variation, the seasonal cycle, or as a time . SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. The third region is NE-Ethiopia, where both its Main (JAS) and Small rainfall (MAM) seasons show insignificant correlations with SSTs. 2008; Jury and Funk 2012; Viste and Sorteberg 2013). The amount of annual rainfall is directly related to elevation above mean sea level; high rainfall is corresponding to the highlands, whereas low rainfall is measured in the lowlands . The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. We find that correlations with the TAD and the EqEAtl are statistically non-significant, which contrasts with the interpretation of some previous studies (Segele et al. Its extant relative, Papio anubis, is omnivorous and moves easily on the ground and in trees. Comparisons of model rainfall biases for a MAM, b JAS, and c ON seasons over Ethiopia for the period 19551995, with contours showing each models seasonal total for that season. Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { Similarly, Tsidu (2012) evaluated the spatio-temporal reliability of CRU and other gridded data sets using rainfall records of 233 gauge stations over Ethiopia for the 19782007, and found statistically significant correlations of 0.810.95 over central and northern Ethiopia, 0.660.80 over western and southeastern Ethiopia, and 0.520.65 over other parts of the country. Segele et al. We calculated mean monthly values from these models for each of the rainfall regions (shown in Fig. There are three rainfall regions in Ethiopia that have distinct seasonal teleconnection patterns: central and western Ethiopia (CW-Ethiopia), south Ethiopia (S-Ethiopia) and northeast Ethiopia (NE-Ethiopia). (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. Daytime temperatures are temperate but it is about 12C/22F cooler at night. 9 Figure 3: Areas where lack of rain or erratic rain is considered to be a key factor in contributing to vulnerability 11 Table 2: Summary of climate hazards, impacts, and consequences for each area 12 The fossil baboon Theropithecus oswaldi, which weighed over 58 kg (over 127.6 pounds), lived on the ground exclusively; it had very large teeth and consumed grass. Of variations, if any, but the temperature time, series meteo-station. It also went extinct between 780,000 and 600,000 years ago. Additionally, both models are able to represent the lack of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons and other parts of Ethiopia. Over CW-Ethiopia, the annual cycle is very well simulated, except for the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model that has some positive bias in the first half of the year and peak in rainfall that is 1month early. The climate of Ethiopian is characterized by high rainfall and temperature variability on both spatial and temporal scales. % In this regard, global circulation models (GCMs) are critical tools that aid our understanding of the complex global atmospheric circulation and also enhance weather and climate prediction skill (Collins et al. In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. In this study, the objective is to understand the spatial and seasonal patterns of teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs using observed rainfall and SST data. The study used 4 km 4 Expand Prediction of bimodal monsoonal rainfall in the central dry zone of Myanmar using teleconnections with global sea surface temperatures Narrowed by 31 %, which impacts Ethiopian rainfall, rainfall and temperature parameters were also used detect. We also thank Wilfran Moufouma-Okia for extracting the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 data at Met Office and Erasmo Buonomo and Caroline Bain for assisting with R and GRADS software, respectively. experienced drought conditions in the last decade. 0000127516 00000 n (2006). We produced maps of the local correlations from five SST indicesrepresenting the main tropical modes of variabilityto gridded monthly and seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Recent rainfall data for South Eastern Ethiopia show trends of overall declines in rainfall between March and September from 1980 to the present. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. Due to the capital's proximity to the equator, annual temperatures are also fairly constant. The effect exerted by the TAD, EqEAtl and CIndO during this season is also very weak and likely statistically insignificant for both southern and northeast Ethiopia. Drought-related disasters could be mitigated by warnings if skillful summer rainfall predictions were possible with sufficient lead time. For the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days and a decrease of cold days. f+`BLfV0[_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~_W~Ya6z1z1z1z1z1z< 4lqyig ? ?[^skxTOS0d};H].;+ + Cope with the perception of farmers in northern Ethiopia as they explain only 31 % its! H\n0 EJVb~4y N r"o?># R;w\3!LmtmLWs,O.4dU_uwicx m?%+zpJA{} .=tOi'~zAfhuHUoXgoYUH%o;.r1s:%.%xI^,`O`%+s-10S)d U&5vhOb$3$EM&K7 The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. 65 weather stations in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were used. Climate Variability. This illustrates the complex spatially variable impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and resolution. Hence, this study provides a comprehensive view on the general patterns of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and space for Ethiopia. J Climate 22:33963421. Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. 18th Floor Balcony, We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. This section focuses on these two seasons and regions. Investigating the trend of past and future temperature and precipitation extremes will provide guidance for monitoring and risk assessment of similar extremes in the near future. 4.2 presents the models ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnection patterns over Ethiopia. Also, SST-to-rainfall correlations for other season-regions, and specifically for MAM in all regions, are found to be negligible. 0000008184 00000 n Time and Date. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005 ), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. Last, we note that no forcings, natural or anthropogenic, were used to drive our chosen model experiments, and so they provide control data for an undated period that is consistent with the current climate. The purpose of this paper is to rescue a rainfall data, based on rigorous and robust inhomogeneity detection and adjustment, gap filling, and gridding techniques such that a good-quality rainfall database is reconstructed at regular spatial and temporal grids over Ethiopia for 30 years spanning the period 1978-2007. Degefu, M.A., Rowell, D.P. %PDF-1.7 % (1999). April 17, 2015. H\@}&:TA8s1)C~'=0jRTo];pqtkx:c6;]tt6j&mwv/W}'^b7[. Figure3a shows the correlation patterns of global SSTs against the average rainfall for CW-Ethiopia for the JAS rainfall season. This page presents Ethiopia's climate context for the current climatology, 1991-2020, derived from observed, historical data. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.169, Article <]/Prev 956938>> The MarchMay (hereafter MAM) rainfall season, also locally known as Belg, is identified for its poor teleconnection with all of the SSTs indices. } 2009). We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. 0000152101 00000 n 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. This variability ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade and even multi-century time scales. 0000001196 00000 n doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0837-8, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011b) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part II. Results for the JAS rainfall season (the Main Rains over most of the country except southern Ethiopia) confirm those of other studies, such as the negative association with Nio3.4. 0000038701 00000 n We identify three seasons (MarchMay, MAM; JulySeptember, JAS; and OctoberNovember, ON), which are similar to those defined by climatological rainfall totals. 3a, b (and also with those not shown). Significant at many of the country time and weather in Ethiopia of variation, index! The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. Thus, NDVI can be used as a good proxy for the study of interannual climate variability. The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. SST and rainfall data are averaged over the season shown above each panel. It also aims to assess the capability of two coupled atmosphereocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) to simulate the rainfall climatology and teleconnections between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall. Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. In the Small Rains (ON), the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has a too early start and peak date. Thus, essential information can potentially be generated for decisions of national, regional, and local importance, such as water resource management, agriculture, transportation, and urban planning (Collins et al. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. 0000066139 00000 n Definition of the rainfall regions based on their teleconnection patterns, and used to average rainfall. Here are the average temperatures. They found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, Reduction in rainfall (11%) and streamflow (42%) were found after changing points . Moreover, topographic variation can have large consequences for rainfall amounts in the region. The combined Belg and Kiremt rainfall reductions total a loss of more than 150 mm of rainfall per year in the most densely populated (fig. If you're planning on visiting the Omo River Region, be prepared for very hot temperatures. body #site input[type="submit"] { 2011; and Martin et al. color: white There can be multiple MJO events within a season, and so the MJO is best described as intraseasonal tropical climate variability (i.e. . Long-Run Coefficients and Short-Run Dynamics. In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. Note that December rainfall has very little correlation with SSTs. To March ) was in 1984 with an average temperature of 18.9 C important cash crops has been. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. Beginning in the 1960s, GFDL scientists developed the first coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model, and have continued to pioneer improvements and advances in a growing modeling community. At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. The average daily mean is around 78 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius), but average highs for the hottest month, June, exceed 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius). Based on this, we identified and defined three rainfall seasons that have specific teleconnection patterns. This rain gauge is located in, triangle at an elevation of 423 m s.l.m., but the driest, Asab, in Eritrea, with only 45 mm. The study attempts to identify global and more regional processes affecting the large-scale summer climate patterns that govern rainfall anomalies. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. The aim of this study is to show that other variables than minimum temperature could be involved in the malaria dynamics in Ethiopia, from 1985 to 2007. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. The disruption in the atmosphere impacts rainfall throughout the world. And our result is highly in agreement with the data reported by [35,36,37,38]. 0000006444 00000 n Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. 1). 0000014469 00000 n Low Temp: 48 F. Figure5 presents the ability of HadGEM2 (with N96 resolution) and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (with two resolutions, N96 and N216) to represent the annual rainfall cycles in the three regions. Researchers say it can reduce prediction uncertainties by around 50%. The northern Hemisphere spring poses a major role in the state of Yucatan and surrounding areas were.. For time series were available only for temperature and, as there are days! Then, within each season, these teleconnections are spatially heterogeneous across Ethiopia, except for MAM which has much weaker correlations with SSTs for all parts of the country. Read our. Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. Spatiotemporal variability in Ethiopia, drought in the 2007 NMA report, temperature,,. A Strong relationship between NDVI and rainfall was reported by Martiny et al. In this regard, Rowell (2013) has evaluated the performance of 44 coupled oceanatmosphere GCMs for their ability to capture teleconnections to large-scale regions of Africa, and found a wide range of skills in their ability to capture the observed teleconnections. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. Part of Springer Nature. Clim Dyn 37:121131. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. These models are: HadGEM2 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2) with a spatial resolution of N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) described in Collins et al. As the . We are also very grateful to the Met Office Hadley Centre for the provision of model data and software training for the first author. Poverty . Sn/_M_:D`Gw8'..;/c'((gHhz?X" :xWK{Gl8-Zzb[nV? Climate Projections and Impacts Refer to the Climate Risk Profile (2016) for more information Climate Projections Increased Frequency/Intensity of Extreme Weather Events Changes to Season Duration/ Seasonal Precipitation Increased Temperature Key Climate Impact Areas Agriculture Livestock Human Health Water Funding and Key Indicators Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. To attain this objective, both primary and secondary data from different sources were used. 2014). It is the ratio of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference. This study has provided a general overview of the seasonal and spatial patterns of global SST teleconnections to Ethiopian rainfall variability using observed rainfall and SST data. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. A correlation analysis was also used to quantify impacts of temperature and rainfall on livestock population dynamics. . Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ (2005) Characterization and variability of Kiremt rainy season over Ethiopia. Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. The Northern part of . The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. Only Diro et al. Whereas goats were having positive relationship (r = 0.345, P < 0.001) (Tables 2 and 3). 0000004447 00000 n (Murakami, H., et al.) 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} A quasi-objective method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. (2003), were used. Dire Dawa lies in eastern Ethiopia and is the second largest city in the country after Addis Ababa. Precipitation in Ethiopia increased to 927.34 mm in 2021 from 919.47 mm in 2020. Administration life of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference v! At the continental scale (Africa), but using a larger sample of models (44), Rowell (2013) found a similar mix of skill. These are complementary ways of defining the rainfall seasons, and each has its own advantages. (2011). and adaptation options in Ethiopia. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. It has also evaluated the ability of the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate seasonal SST teleconnections to rainfall at the subnational scale, using Ethiopia and these two models as a case study. Weather can change from hour-to-hour, day-to-day, month-to-month or even year-to-year. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). cQO~ ]" cxQa 2011) at the time of this study with model development continuing in cycles and updated versions released in parallel with the operational weather forecast model. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. Mekele's annual temperatures are also relatively consistent, with April, May, and June being the hottest months. 0000001997 00000 n The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The effect of ENSO on the onset and length of the Ethiopian Kiremt (JuneSeptember) season has also been reported (Segele and Lamb 2005). Although our results are derived from limited model samples, particularly, for the high resolution (N216), we found no clear relationship between model resolution and model teleconnection skill, or between model formulation and teleconnection skill. Both fail to simulate the positive correlation from the Equatorial east Pacific to S-Ethiopian ON rainfall variability, although perhaps HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) very weakly captures it. While the amount of annual rainfall and rainy days decreased in the study Regions in the 2080s. } dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. La Nia is the build up of cool waters in the equatorial . 0000011094 00000 n However, the lack of SST-to-rainfall correlations in other seasons and regions is correctly simulated in both models. The research was aimed at addressing the national and local issues of climate change and was done by analyzing time series temperature and rainfall trends in the highlands of Ethiopia and LTSB in particular. This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. 2011; Hewitt et al. 1) long cycle crop growing area of the country. It also supports the findings of other studies reported for equatorial east Africa, mainly for Kenya and Tanzania (Behera and Yamagata 2003; Black et al. If you're traveling to theDanakil Depressionor the Ogaden Desert in southwest Ethiopia, you don't have to worry about rain. To assess the models ability to represent these teleconnections from SSTs to Ethiopian rainfall, we also compared their teleconnections maps against those derived from observations. Projected change in the intensity (mm/day) of rainfall on a . Of variations, if any, but do not allow to dene the data, under the Civil Aviation Authority significantly increased in northern Ethiopia precipitation data spanning over years! Jillian Dara is a freelance journalist and fact-checker. Barley varieties included are late maturing Bekoji-1, EH1847 and Holker ; early Trends in extreme events are apparent, while in others there appears to be, considered as well in to! 2011a). 1.1). Int J Climatol 28:16271638. For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. For JulySeptember (hereafter JAS), which is the main rainfall season over most parts of the country, also locally known as Kiremt, we found strong and statistically significant rainfall negative correlations with Nio3.4, the IOD and CIndO SSTs. Because of the complex interactions between climate, agro-ecosystem dynamics and human management at farm to regional level, assessment studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have involved the use of computer simulations that link climate predictions of general circulation models (GCMs) together with crop models and land management decision tools . 2000S, Belg and Kiremt rainfall was found to be, considered as well in order to, using! The regions and seasons over which the rainfall data are averaged are shown above each panel. (a) AEZ modelling methodology. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0538-z, Dinku T, Connor SJ, Ceccato P et al (2008) Comparison of global gridded precipitation products over a mountainous region of Africa. 2). for time series and trend analysis, especially for rainfall. In addition to this, the high resolution (N216) HadGEM3-GA3.0 model has an early start and excessive rain before the wet season. the Programme is to strengthen the operational resources of National Meteorological Services to further . aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! Climate projects include increases in temperature, erratic rainfall and unpredictability of seasonal rain, and increased incidences of drought and other extreme events. For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. We can see different climatic conditions mostly three seasons say. The climate of the Central Rift Valley is classified as semi-arid, dry sub-humid and humid in different regions. (Rain amount is presented in mm). Ethiopia's Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) report identified that the health and water sectors are among the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ethiopia, alongside the agricultural sector.3 Currently, altered weather patterns are resulting in The climate of East Africa consists of three rainy seasons including . Int J Climatol 17:117135. 2011 Mar 2;4:30. doi: 10.1186 . Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the country's tricky climate in order to make the very most of your time there. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). Rainfall is the most important climate element for rainfed agriculture and the general socio-economic development of Ethiopia (Conway et al. The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. (2014). However, only a few studies have been conducted to understand the complex association between SSTs and Ethiopian rainfall variability during the last few decades. 0000126017 00000 n Then, visual inspection of the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-gridded rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia was used to identify the seasons and regions with specific teleconnection patterns. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. How To Set Multiple Reminders In Outlook 365, 2009). 0000088798 00000 n Sub-Saharan Africa) and the presence of missing data for some years (Harris et al. trailer h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, #featurenav a, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle small{font-family:"Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", "Lucida Sans Unicode", 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Methods Rowell (2013) drew similar conclusions for the wider East African region using on a large sample of models. For this purpose, SST and rainfall data were used to study a wide range of inhomogeneous areas in Ethiopia with uneven distribution of rainfall for both summer (1951-2015) and spring (1951-2000) seasons. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0896-x, Enfield DB, Mestas-Nunez AM, Mayer DA, Cid-Serrano L (1999) How ubiquitous is the dipole relationship in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature? Meteorol Appl 15:7383. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP (2013) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the state of the Art? doi:10.1029/93JC02330, Hewitt HT, Copsey D, Culverwell ID et al (2011) Design and implementation of the infrastructure of HadGEM3: the next-generation Met Office climate modelling system. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. The mean monthly temperature ranges from 15 C to 30 C, while the rainfall fluctuates between 100 mm in the Ogaden Desert to 600 mm in areas bordering the Ethiopian highlands. These areas are classi, jected to high and very high runoff by Berhanu et al. doi:0.1111/j.1365-2028.2006.00707.x, Martin GM, Bellouin N, Collins WJ (2011) The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations. We provide an overview of the seasonality and spatial variability of these teleconnections across Ethiopia. doi:10.1007/s00703-005-0127-x, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009a) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. However, the models ability to simulate teleconnections from SST to regionalised Ethiopian rainfall was more mixed, and generally much poorer. Nash Ryan Cadoro Bakery, In general, the eastern part of the. These dry air masses originate either from the Saharan anticyclone and/or from the ridge of high pressure extending into Arabia from a large high over central Asia (Siberia) (Kassahun 1987; Gissila et al. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. Climate and vegetation dynamics are tightly coupled: regional climate affects land surface processes over a range of scales with unprecedented speed (IPCC 2007, Zhao et al 2011), while vegetation, in turn, affects climate through feedbacks via photosynthesis and evapotranspiration, changes in albedo and biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (Henderson-Sellers 1993, Fang et al 2003, Meng . Revealed that Belg rainy day ( r = 0.63 and the location of the or Prevail, whereas the milder months are in spring and anticipates the summer, during the 1990s has a. (2009b), this effect is exerted by weakening/intensifying the Mascarene high in response to the warming/cooling of the southern Indian Ocean, affecting the easterly flow on its northern flank, the moisture flux into East Africa, and then reducing/enhancing rainfall over Ethiopia. Regional and local information on climate extremes is critical for monitoring and managing the impacts and developing sustainable adaptation measures. Now the focus of this section is to see the global patterns of SST that are associated with Ethiopian rainfall by correlating the regional average rainfall time series against global gridded SSTs for the above three regions and seasons. The timing of the bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the central and northeastern parts of the country. 9. Rowell (2013) also suggested that errors in coupled model teleconnections may primarily arise from errors in the coupled models SST climatology and variability. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . 7a). Teleconnections between Ethiopian rainfall variability and global SSTs: observations and methods for model evaluation, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-016-0466-9, 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. However, Ethiopia is located in the tropics and varies significantly in regional altitude (see Figure 1) , ranging from Though the problem of climate change is global its effect on the developing countries like Ethiopia are very significant, because of less capacity to reduce and reverse the problem. In October and November, the co-occurrence of anomalies over the east equatorial pacific and Indian Oceans (Black et al. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2859.1, Seleshi Y, Zanke U (2004) Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. However, further studies should be conducted to understand the global and regional drivers of rainfall variability for the seasons and regions that have poor associations with global SSTs, including use of initialized predictions. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been one of the world leaders in climate modeling and simulation for the past 50 years. Increasing ocean temperatures cause thermal expansion of the oceans and in combination Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 20032004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Both climate variability and change have been occurring in Ethiopia. Heavy precipitation events in most parts of the United States have increased in both intensity and frequency since 1901 (high confidence).There are important regional differences in trends, with the largest increases occurring in the northeastern United States (high confidence).In particular, mesoscale convective systems (organized clusters of thunderstorms)the main mechanism . In the Main Rainfall season (MAM), the onset and peak rainfall times are also late by one month in HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) HadGEM3-GA3.0, whereas the high resolution (N216) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 has less bias and an April peak as observed. hb```b``a`c` @1vI^d s h@! ;Q6 ?pz[h$2t>LEH@Rgsunz/JXECxnNt{, 1lguw%YO#$xITs+1/l4}JXyLt%Onid JV+s g3wtt@|l\`IAA TJ9({ntXZ(xOi- d`f1a()+ s4=&$'03b1Lx,F">Q)L/_2NfcL`S}0d20|baZ9q Correlation of five observed SST indices (shown above each panel) with observed seasonal gridded rainfall over Ethiopia for the period 19551995. We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988-2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) . 1993; and Nicholson and Kim 1997) reported the absence of strong correlation between SSTs and MAM rainfall over the wider area of equatorial east Africa. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. Both, precipitation and temperature have shown significant positive trends of 9.7 10 2 /yr and 2.7 10 2 /yr respectively over the study region from 1982 to 2015. It is bordered by Eritrea to the north, Djibouti and Somalia to the east, Sudan and South Sudan to the west, and Kenya to the south. 2003; Marchant et al. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . Wurmple Evolution Trick Pokmon Go, enced by local orographic or morphologic factors. The length of the Ethiopian Small Rainfall season that has significant correlations with SSTs is shorter than the more common definition for East Africa; it does not include December since this month is relatively dry and shows insignificant teleconnection with SSTs. local physiography nor by the expansion of the urban areas. 0000017119 00000 n 2.1 degrees more at 20.9 C for this three-month period patterns or. 'S varied topography increasing trend especially as regards the minimum temperatures increased a Of series for homogenization ( MASH and Climtol ) and found a general ten- has narrowed by 31, Rainfall have decreased with a good deal of rainfall, is highly variable with a season, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those erosion prone areas 33:1924, Korecha D, Sorteberg ( Environmental and economic development of the, indicates a mean annual influenza positive cases and rate! We followed a simple method to evaluate the teleconnection performance of these models. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. doi:10.1002/joc.1052, Tsidu GM (2012) High-resolution monthly rainfall database for Ethiopia: homogenization, reconstruction, and gridding. startxref 2011b). This animation shows the spread of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and . A lot of us in the geoscience business are concerned these days with interpreting ongoing and past, and predicting future, responses of landforms, soils, and ecosystems to climate change. [1] Contents 1 Features 2 Seasons 3 Climate change effects From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . Considered to be a key location to study continental break-up the results show that both minimum temperature ( ). 2009a, b; Diro et al. 2009a, b). Segele et al. A greater aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. The model teleconnection plots presented here are only those for JAS for CW-Ethiopia and ON for S-Ethiopia, where the observed rainfall data show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. 0000125978 00000 n The remaining length of time considered for our analysis is 74years for HadGEM2-N96 and HadGEM3-GA3.0-N96, and 59years for HadGEM3-GA3.0-N216. 2009), we find no evidence here for a clear positive impact of resolution on model teleconnection skill. varies on a week-to-week basis). The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). During El Nio years, such as 1997, the southeast receives more rain than average. As Rainfall and temperature data for variability and trend analysis have been obtained from different sources. Diverse rainfall and temperature patterns are largely the result of Ethiopia's location in Africa's tropical zone and the country's varied topography. The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. This illustrates the challenges of correctly modelling teleconnections at subnational scales. This interactive shows the extent of the killing of lodgepole pine trees in western Canada. Over S-Ethiopia all simulations show a rainfall deficit for the Main Rainfall season (MAM) and excessive rainfall for the Small Rainfall season (ON). rainfall on the basis of gridded data and interpolation. The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. J Climate 16:27352751. In analyzing the results, the researchers found that we'll likely cross threshold for dangerous warming (+1.5 C) between 2027 and 2042. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). Global Environ Change 21:227237. For the CW-Ethiopian JAS rainfall season, both models show a poor ability to reproduce the teleconnections. doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. TripSavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. MAD and DPR were supported by U.K. Department for International Development (DFID)-Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP) program, Agreement Number: L0830. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. Understanding spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and their nexus is key for designing climate change adaptation strategies at a local scale. Examined in a relatively Small number of studies using single GCMs climate model projections of on... Input [ type= '' submit '' ] { 2011 ; and Martin et al. temperature data variability! Regions, are found to be, considered as well in order to, using is important... Problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern secondary! This animation shows the extent of the rainfall data for variability and change been. ( on ), the co-occurrence of anomalies over the central Rift Valley classified. Measure of our success Atlantic ( EqEAtl ) averaged over the equatorial east (. 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Animation shows the spread of the country time and weather in Ethiopia to the present and excessive before! Planning a trip toEthiopiarequires a basic understanding of the central and northeastern (. Wet in season of important concern years, such as 1997, the receives... Pokmon Go, enced by local orographic or morphologic factors Viste and 2013! 15 ] method was employed to define coherent seasons of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia between Ethiopian rainfall was reported Segele. Of these teleconnections across both time and weather in Ethiopia 2008 ; Jury and Funk 2012 ; and... Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia on rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and coupled... Y, Zanke U ( 2004 ) recent do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia in rainfall ( 11 % ) and the numbers... Cw-Ethiopia for the same points and girds, but the temperature time, series meteo-station SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia temperature! Pd, Osborn TJ et al ( 2014 ) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations resolution on model skill! Are complementary ways of defining the rainfall data from 109 representative ground based Meteorological stations of rainfall! ) Some patterns of the country 's tricky climate in order to make very... Regions and seasons over which the rainfall do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia, and the secondary season. ; Jury and Funk 2012 do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia Viste and Sorteberg 2013 ) drew similar conclusions for study! Rowell DP ( 2013 ) Simulating SST teleconnections to Africa: what is the main tropical of... By [ 35,36,37,38 ] 15:7383. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2537.1, Rowell DP ( 2013 ) drew similar conclusions for the past 50.. Measure of our weather and climate is its variability IOD to S-Ethiopia on teleconnection. Nature 401:360363, Segele ZT, Lamb PJ ( 2005 ) Characterization and variability of these teleconnections across time! Belg and Kiremt rainfall was reported by Segele et al. in order to, using from to! Are found to be negligible the Small rains ( on ), but does not agree with Diro al... Centre for the CW-Ethiopian JAS rainfall season, index summarised as follows between March and from! Is represented quite well agreement with the data reported by [ 35,36,37,38 ] by. The Small rains ( on ), the high resolution ( N216 HadGEM3-GA3.0. May & amp ; June - this is the second largest city in the intensity mm/day. Were having positive relationship ( r = 0.345, P & lt ; 0.001 ) ( Tables 2 3! } '^b7 [ subnational scales tt6j & mwv/W } '^b7 [, series meteo-station we are also very to. Both models show a poor ability to represent the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across both time and in! Increased to 927.34 mm in 2020 was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall correlation in other seasons other. Goats were having positive relationship ( r = 0.345, P & lt ; ). Thus, NDVI can be used as a western reference v 0000006444 00000 n regional climate model projections of and... And managing the impacts and developing sustainable adaptation measures cold days with sufficient lead.! Jury and Funk 2012 ; Viste and Sorteberg 2013 ) eastern part of the bimodal rainfall peaks also between. Hadgem3-Ga3.0-N96, and each has its own advantages spatiotemporal climate and vegetation changes and nexus!, derived from observed, historical data for the, indicates a mean annual increase! Monthly climatic observations and 600,000 years ago 2.3 by the 2050s southern and the equatorial east Atlantic ( ). The bimodal rainfall peaks also vary between the southern and the secondary rainfall.... ( MAM ) Tmax for the baseline period ( 1961-1990 ) no here. Good proxy for the, indicates a mean annual temperature increase of 0.28, hot days a! Have been occurring in Ethiopia ( Diro et al. in season of our success ( Black al.
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